How SpaceX's Starship Can Change the Space Industry (and our Lives) in 3–5 years
It is hard to underestimate the impact space-related technologies have had on our everyday lives, our environment, and the way we do business. But let’s dive into the details and see what changes are coming.
Recently, SpaceX conducted the third test flight of its largest rocket, the Starship. After a successful takeoff and a smooth ride into space, the Starship fell apart somewhere around the Indian Ocean during its re-entry. Despite the dramatic finale, the test flight was a success — during the two previous test flights, the rocket exploded.
Again, this is nothing unusual — launching something into space is extremely hard, especially something as big as the Starship. The next, fourth, flight may happen as soon as May of this year. But you may ask, what about this rocket is so unique, and why does it matter so much now?
Well, there are several things to consider:
Starship itself (it’s really big)
Recent trends in satellite launches
Outlook for the next several years.
Ok, Starship is a big rocket, so what’s the catch?
Yes, Starship is insanely big compared to everything else flying into space now. Starship is a 400-foot-tall (122 m) mega-rocket, consisting of the upper stage, known as Ship, and the huge Super Heavy first-stage booster.
Capacity Problem. The idea behind the size of this rocket is its capacity — it can lift more stuff into space. It could be more satellites into Earth orbit, or more fuel to travel to the Moon or Mars, as an example. As of now, there are just not enough commercial carriers able to put into Earth orbit all the satellites — and SpaceX dominates the market. Analysts at Euroconsult forecast that the next decade will see some 28,700 satellites launched into space. That’s three times more than we have now — around 9,494 active satellites in various Earth orbits.
The demand is there — and Starship may take it. More satellites in the Earth orbit — more data to work with, better and cheaper connectivity, more competition, and better quality of services for consumers.
Space is the ultimate start-up sector. The opportunities it presents are as vast as space itself. — Steve Jurvetson, Venture Capitalist and Board Member at SpaceX
Low Cost. But it is not only about the size of the rocket — Starship is intended to be fully reusable, allowing both stages to be recovered after a mission and to be rapidly reused. SpaceX has stated that a long-term goal for the Starship system is to achieve frequent space launches at low cost.
And low cost means really low costs compared to everything else we had during the last several years. Payload Space estimates that a single-use Starship can bring the cost down to about $150 per kg. However, high reuse of the Super Heavy Starship will bring the cost down to $10–20 per kg. Compare this with the current average costs of $2300 per 1kg, while in 1981 it was $147 000 per 1 kg.
Data is a New Oil
Earth observation satellites generate a massive amount of data — and this data already transformed many industries. Now we see an explosion of satellite startups providing enhanced geospatial data for a very reasonable price. It became normal to use satellite data in agriculture (like checking crop health, and soil monitoring), insurance, logistics, investment services, and many more. Another big area of application is military intelligence — you can check my article dedicated to this topic on Medium.
Recent advancements in AI are enhancing the capabilities of companies across the Space Economy. While 2023 was a year of experimentation, 2024 will see AI integrated into enterprise workflows as products from AWS, Google, and Microsoft will set the pace for enterprise adoption and revenue generation. — Q4 2023 Space Investment Quarterly
Global Connectivity
Like 10 years ago you would pay a fortune to have satellite internet if you live in a remote area. Satellite internet connection was aimed at governmental agencies or businesses, but not the average consumer. Not to mention the size of the equipment, low speed, and questionable reliability of connection. But now everything has changed — put a Starlink dish in your backyard, click a couple of buttons and you are ready to go.
Commercial use cases are growing even more — the possibility of connecting vessels, trucks, or airplanes is on another level. SpaceX Starlink, OneWeb, and Amazon’s Project Kuiper aim to launch even more satellites to offer global low-latency satellite internet access. For instance, Amazon with its Project Kuiper plans to deploy a network of over 3000 satellites.
Overall, it seems inevitable that we will see many more satellites be launched into Earth orbit within the next couple of years to enable the industry transformation. And Starship can provide the logistical power of a conveyor belt to launch all kinds of satellites into Earth orbit.
